FELIPE ARGOTE: THE BLOG: 2009

sábado, 26 de diciembre de 2009

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2010

domingo, 20 de diciembre de 2009

GLOBAL WARM

THE MALDIVES WILL SINK UNDER THE INDIAN OCEAN

By Felipe Argote

In Copenhagen, Denmark since last December's 17 is taking place the United Nations conference on climate change. This meeting aims to develop an argument to stop the causes of global warming and its disastrous effects on humanity. The cause of global warming is primarily the product CO2 from burning fossil fuels especially coal and oil.

Accumulating CO2 in the atmosphere forms a layer that traps heat from the sun and raises the temperature of the earth. These temperature increases is already causing extensive and have melted polar areas. That large chunks of ice separating from the melting polar cap are slowly moving through the ocean freely. This raises the sea level and therefore endangers coastal cities.

To get an idea of how it affects us directly Panamanians just give you an example. It is considered that the elevation of only 30 centimeters in sea level would determine the need to evacuate the city of Colon. Follow his trend to global warming by 2050 is expected to raise sea level by 70 centimeters. But sea level rise would not only have effects on flood coastal cities also raise levels of salinity of ground water and reducing the volume of potable water for human consumption and agriculture. Additionally would be catastrophic for mangroves and spawning areas for many marine species. It is estimated that in 50 years could be lost 30 percent of the species follow this trend.

The major plants are producing energy from fuel annually emitted 2500 million tones of CO2 gas emissions and vehicles annually emit 1,500 million tons of CO2. Currently the United States are responsible for 25% of the issue CO2 in the world despite having only 4% of world population. In contradiction was one of the few countries not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. It was not ratified during the Bill Clinton administration in which Al Gore; Nobel Prize for his fight against climate change was his vice president. Wasn’t ratified during the Bush administration, where in addition the U.S. withdrew from the protocol.

This Kyoto Protocol was an agreement signed on 11 December 1997 in which industrialized countries pledged to reduce by 2012 to 5% of their emissions over 1990 levels. This includes not only CO2 but also methane and nitrous oxide in addition to three industrial pollutants.

But twelve years later there seems no political will to implement the commitment. The largest issuer through his foreign minister instead of Hilary Clinton pledging to reduce emissions of gases undertakes to contribute U.S. $ 100,000 million annually beginning in 2020 when neither Hilary nor Obama will be on the U.S. government. These grants would have the receivers to the poor countries to mitigate the devastating effects. That will actually accept that the climate on these countries will change instead of trying to stop it. China, another big issuer and with the greatest tendency to increase gas emissions in the future, says there is no time to compromise and that should leave the conference with a political statement. So with a politic manifesto this does not land on anything specific or compromise anyone to nothing.

However Brazil has been very aggressive in its commitment to reduce its emanations between 36.1 and 38.9 percent for 2020. The president Lula Da Silva pushed for industrialized countries responsible for the warming commit to reduce by at least 25% over the same period. He recalled that Brazil is a leader in biofuels and that "This summit is not a game where cards can be stored in the sleeve," said Lula, who said there was no room for complacency and it is time to act because "the verdict of the History will not save those who do not take responsibility. "

At last he pushed an agreement on precise gaseous reduction rather than a political manifesto. The agreement set aside by the United States, China, India and South Africa has more emphasis on economic aid against the disaster to prevent catastrophe. China refuses to accept any international body to verify their emissions considering it an intrusion on their sovereignty.

In this connection see what the agreement said John Sauve, executive director of Greenpeace in the UK:

"It seems that few politicians capable of seeing beyond their own interest and even less to worry about the millions of people facing the threat of climate change,"

"It is clear that combating climate change requires a radically different political model that what have shown in Copenhagen".

While politicians avoided the issue, representatives of the Maldives, one of the first places to disappear underwater watched impassively as the world does nothing to prevent their disappearance.

20 YEARS OF THE INVASION OF PANAMA

By: Felipe Argote

The long night if, one day before the longest night of the year in the northern hemisphere, became even longer, almost perpetual, for the thousands of people especially Chorrillo who felt 500-pound bombs dropped literally on top of their heads.

You never know, maybe we will never know the names of the murdered innocents. There is not a monument with the names of the killed, so they will not forgotten. No. On the contrary, all governments, starting with that took possession in a foreign military base, have tried to ignore the unfortunate episode in the history of this country.

However, the many innocent people killed for no reason and the dozens who died taking up arms, defending the country, guaranteed with their lives that ten years later not only the soldiers who invaded our territory but all stationed at the bases leave the country and the closure of the Canal Zone. Despite the vast unpopularity of the Noriega dictatorship, although small and great attempts were unsuccessful to overthrow the dictator and pessimism seemed to become master of the population, there were important areas that reacted against the intrusion of the military foreign to elucidate internal conflict. Panamanians were not all as Endara, Ford and Arias Calderon. This was demonstrated with large demonstrations that despite the presence of gringos tanks roamed the streets on May Day, just four months after the invasion, the great manifestations of the Coordinator for the right to life, to whom the puppet government invented the notorious Law 25 and especially the massive march on 20 December 1990.

This patriotic attitude of the committees, especially the families of fallen on December 20, but many others were important to the invader calculated it was better to leave and as a thief who flees to his lair, did not expect the 12's noon on 31 December 1999 instead went to the hill of the administration building of the canal in the middle of the complicity of the night, dropped their last flag and went in the last military aircraft from the base of Howard.

The long list of those who died on 20 December 1989 the sum of the heroes and martyrs who died in 1925 and 1964, with his precious blood that helped cement our free and sovereign country. As we enjoy the beauty of our canal areas and we are proud of our canal, we must not forget that many men and women gave their lives for something that years ago seemed a dream come true.

domingo, 13 de diciembre de 2009

A SNOW MOUNTAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFRICAN JUNGLE

THE KILIMANJARO

By: Felipe Argote

The legend of a snow mountain in the middle of Africa was often denounced as myth by the Europeans, despite the fact that for many years it was in the passageway of caravans of slaves from Central Africa to Zanzibar, which was its intermediate destination. Zanzibar in Persian means the coast of the blacks or also known as the Moluccas, an island species.

But the comments did not stop to listen. The stories of those from Unguja and Pemba islands located off the east coast of Africa, where from the twelfth to the nineteenth centralized thousands of slaves who were hunted like animals by the Arab traders then by the Persians and later by the British. These stories tell of a great mountain that rose above the clouds and inhabited in her skirts for the terrible cannibal of the Chagga tribe.

Much earlier, in the second century BC, the Greek astronomer Ptolemy referred to a mysterious place in southern Somalia inhabited by cannibals and a snowy mountain. Then in the twelfth century Chinese traders refer to a large mountain west of Zanzibar.

Not until 170 years ago when William Cogley and other British explorers will internalize this part of Africa in search of the source of the Nile, which refer to the existence of this great mountain snow in the middle of the jungle. Johannes Rebbman Two years later, a German missionary heard about the existence of this huge mountain and decided to look for it. He obtained a permit under the guise of wanting to find new locations for Christian missions. Two weeks into the voyage locates the mount called Chagga. This is what he wrote:

"This morning we saw the Mountains of Jagga more clearly than ever at ten o'clock I saw on the summit a dazzling white cloud. My guide tells me that the white which I see is simply "cool" that makes me understand clearly that there could be no other thing than snow. "

After many attempts by various groups of Hungarians, Germans and British to climb the top of Kilimanjaro it was reached only on 6 October 1889, 120 years ago, guided by the participation of Chagga tribesman Yohana Lawd, together with the German Hans Meyer and Ludwig Purtscheller. Yohana De Lawd is said to have died in 1997 aged 127 years old.

Kilimanjaro is a volcano with three craters: Kibo (hope in Chagga), Mawenzi (5149 m) east and Shira west. The Kibo main summit is 2500 meters in diameter. Its last eruption was 360.000 years ago. The interesting thing about this stratovolcano is the contrast between their great elevation of 5,895 meters crowned by a massive glacier in the middle of the African plains with a hot tropical climate of the country of Tanzania, the union of Tanganyika and Zanzibar. In fact the word Tanzania is a union of the names of its two components who join in 1964.

Currently the glacier is disappearing very quickly. It is estimated that in 1900 added up to a twelve square kilometers area. But now occupies only 2 square kilometers. At this rate is very likely to disappear in one hundred and ten years. The global warming does not seem enough to develop this trend. It is believed that possibly is due to a slow awakening of this colossus as evidenced by the existence of vents that can be seen occasionally arising.

We may be one of the last generations that can attest to the existence of a snowy mountain in the middle of the African jungle of Tanzania, the country where the famous singer Farrokh Bulsara bommie was born Hw was better known by his pseudonym Freddie Mercury, the Queen band leader who died of AIDS in 1991.

THE NEW TAX REFORM

By: Felipe Argote

Among the economic trends are a number of trends and opinions as the on the same legal concept. Among economists there are so many different currents that is a myth to say that we can group them without anyone bothering to be in a segment with someone who does not approach its design. By contrast there are matrices or better as Tim Berners-Lee would say a web of ideas that intersect in some respects. The go as asymptotes and then away again in other elements of analysis. What can never be doubted, even among the historicist, much less between the marginalists, who adhere to a more algebraic approach to the economy, is equality between the two sides of an equation. The properties of equality states that if each side of an equation is added or subtracted an equal number, equality holds. Contrarius Censu, if a part of equality is added a number and the other remains the same, it destroys the equality of the equation. This may be not be economics but algebra, but serves to explain that if we have a balanced budget but we hope to increase revenues by 200 million dollars, to keep the budget balanced is impossible to reduce the sources of revenue without a replacement income decline plus the 200 million dollars.

While we can not say that tax reforms that will come to be discussed in January next year is not the best kept secret, cannot be said categorically that anyone knows the entire document. Least one could argue that their guidelines will be the end of the fiscal reform, given the pounding of the chief executive may, as it did with the Credentials Committee appointed by him to evaluate candidates for Judges of the Supreme Court, claim that does not like any of the measures proposed by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. With the difference that the consulting firm based in Washington that says is proud to serve the 70% of the companies listed in Fortune magazine will charge $2.5 million for their advice, unlike the commission of credentials that is ad honorem.

Some, however, those who have had access to the proposal, all close to the government, speak beauties of the document. Let's see. The former president of the Chamber of Commerce José Rivera rescues from the document a key element: Try that taxpayers, both individuals and businesses, see their tax rate reduced. Okay. If both natural and legal person will see their taxes reduced, and also will be recovered at least 100 million more as said the Minister of economy Vallarino, or 200 million as discussed among the most optimistic (or should I say pessimistic). To this is added that according to vice Economics Minister Frank de Lima, employees earning less than B/3,000 per month will pay 80 million less and who earns more than that number and pay 27% will be now lowered to 22% as the corporate rate. We may well be talking about another 200 million. It is highly unlikely that any difference is paid by the rise of banking. Impossible. If the banks now pays about B/47 million and is said to increase its contribution by 50% that is less than B/25 million more. Then it comes the declarations of the president of the republic Ricardo Martinelli who denies any possibility of raising the consumption tax or ITBMS, liquor and beer. Good news for the vice president.

Previously in the 2009 budget presentation gave some contradictory trends in our opinion on the variables that underlie it. For example it suggests that in 2010 that unemployment will fall by 1.5% while growth will be 3.5% in GDP. If in 2008 compared to the year immediately preceding the unemployment rate fell by just over one percentage point under pressure from economic growth above eight percent, how it intends to reduce the level of unemployment at 1.5% in 2010 to expected growth of only 3.5% being optimistic. Moreover, this is estimated to be accompanied by a reduction of more than 5 percentage points in the inflation rate. If this is possible then we have to establish three hypotheses

1. We must review the properties of the equation, including Baldor's algebra.

2. There are other non-recurring revenues that the government has saved with great zeal.

3. There will be a tax increase, most likely with an emphasis on consumption taxes to be paid by all Panamanians.

If the third hypothesis is fulfilled and I would like to be wrong, what we save in a pocket we're going to pay it with the other and a little more. How much more? Well, how about 200 millions ?

lunes, 7 de diciembre de 2009

FABLE OF THE FROG AND THE SCORPION

By Felipe Argote

The nobility of the people is legendary. After being deceived they always give politicians another chance.

Although in the past four years from 2004 to 2008 the economy grew at an average of more than seven digits, the Panamanian population is not enjoying this bonanza due to an increase in the prices of staple products known as the food basket of more than 35%.

To repair his woes the noble people entrusted their hopes to the owner of the largest supermarket chain in the country. Contradictory.

In the nineties Perez Balladares government implemented in our country the so called neoliberal model. This is a reissue of approach of the Austrian Carl Meger, Ludwig Von Mises, Friedrich von Hayek, among others. The theory is that by lowering tariffs, prices of imported goods would be cheaper than national. This would depress prices and consumers would be beneficiaries of this reduction in costs because domestic producers would be forced to lower prices by raising their efficiency because they would have more competition.

The reality was different. The importers took for their selves the difference between the price and the cost of imported goods without crossing the reduction in the price to consumers, instead set prices depending on what was indicated by domestic products, not imported, as claimed neoliberal economists.

The biggest beneficiary was undoubtedly the largest supermarket chains in the country and therefore the largest importer of consumer goods.

This policy initiated by government and Perez Balladares was continued by the next government of Arnulfist Mireya Moscoso and then the PRD of Martin Torrijos.

The people upset to see the deterioration of their living standards despite the country's economic growth reject the neoliberal policy makers and surrender all their hopes on a candidate who ran as an independent, not linked to the old politicians and that among other things promises to lower the prices of the products in the basket in 30%.

However, this policy is nothing less than the owner of the largest supermarket chain in the country, the biggest beneficiary of the reduction in tariffs and that refused to pass this decrease in costs to final consumers, taking advantage of the policy of free supply and demand of the neoliberal model implemented by the last three administrations. Did he need to be president to lower prices? Is it possible that the owner of supermarkets pursue a policy of price reduction that goes against their own interests and the nature of merchant whose goal is to buy the cheapest possible and sell with the most profit? Some clever guys after my question told me that the new president will have to fulfill their promise because otherwise the country will be involved in a social whirlwind. This will be very inconvenient to their interests as a popular uprising would be negative for the economy and thus for their own business. That is not going to kill myself politically and economically.

This leads me to quote you the fable assigned to Esopo but sometimes claimed to be a story of the African country of Niger.

There was a very noble frog in the Niger River that helped animals to cross the river to those who lacked the ability to cross by their own. So crossed mice, lizards and flies up to have their wet wings could not fly. One evening he saw a scorpion who asked her to cross. The noble frog told how he thought she was going to cross him that nobility did not mean stupid. That being a scorpion, he will stick his venom in her back. The scorpion assured him that was different and in no way he will endanger their lives because the murder would sink in too Deep River. He convinced the frog with his argument and she asks him to climb on her back. When they were in the river the scorpion venom poisonous nail her back. As they sank into the river, the frog asked him how he was so stupid that now both would die by drowning. The scorpion said very seriously ... What do you want me to do I am a scorpion it’s my nature, and then both of them sank to the bottom of the mighty Niger.

SIR JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES

By: Felipe Argote

Son of tiger striped leaves. But sometimes the born with many more lines than the father. This is the case with John Maynard Keynes. The son of John Nevile Keynes, a Cambridge economist follower of the ideas of Alfred Marshall the founder of the economy known cone the Cambridge school. He is also considered to Marshall the founder of the welfare state because, according to his own statement believes that the ultimate goal of economics is not simply the solution of social problems.

Keynes was born in 1883 in Cambridge, England where his father was a follower of the Cambridge school lead by Marshall. After studying mathematics, John Maynard decided to specialize in economics following the path of the influence of Marshall who was a friend of his father. At the age of 23 years he went to work to India for two years. He published "The Indian Currency and Finance". Later returns and stands as a professor at Cambridge University where he remains for seven years. In 1918 He married Lydia Lopokova Russian ballet dancer. In 1919 he was one of the representatives of Great Britain in establishing the so-called Treaty of Versailles which applies a harsh regime of reparations on Germany after its surrender in Worl War I. Keynes resigned the same year for being against the levels of punishment against the German grounds that they were unaffordable and would severely damage the German economy with negative consequences for the rest of the world. He published "The Economic Consequences of Peace. In 1926 he presented to Oxford where he gave a lecture "The End of Laissez Faire" in criticizing the current liberal individualists who nevertheless served in the late eighteenth century to change the concept of divine right of kings by the concept of social contract and individual freedom, and to replace the concept of divine right of the church for tolerance and the concept that the church is a group of people walking together by choice and not imposed in the style of Torquemada.

This critique of laissez faire liberalism and the concept of the invisible hand and that selfishness are desirable for society develops. It was three years before the Great Depression of October 1929. The recession lasted until the mid-thirties because of the stubbornness of liberal economists who insisted that there should be no intervention to resolve the crisis. Franklin Delano Roosevelt took the ideas clearly when inaugurated the so-called Keynesian New Deal, the committed state and guarantor of health, education and the work of members of society.

Without doubt the greatest contribution of Keynes is contained in the book "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" in which he analyzes the major recession which began with the fall of the stock exchange in New York. It is Keynes who manages to enter as a key element to explain the reduction in consumption in the so-called marginal propensity to save. This is that higher income people tend to reduce the percentage of their income they spend on consumption and instead increase the percentage dedicated to saving. This is because the consumption capacity of an individual has a limit. So if someone who earns minimum wage raises the wages he is very likely that nearly all the difference to spend to buy more food, clothes and so on. However if someone who has high level of income you receive a substantial increase in income is likely that much of their additional income as a fixed-term deposits.

Also consider that in periods of recession the state must, at the expense of a deficit, boost growth in demand through public works schemes that reduce the depression of wages. These measures, according to Keynes rising demand, which makes investors will decide to create companies that meet this demand which in turn raises economic growth as a spiral.

Keynes represented England in the Bretton Woods Conference. He proposed creating the International Clearing Union; an exchange institution would issue an international currency that would be exchanged for the currencies of the countries of the United Nations a fixed exchange rate. His plan was defeated by the one presented by the United States through its representative Harry D. White. The United States was in possession of 80% of all the gold in the world and was a creditor of his allies who had sold arms and made loans that did not participate in exploiting the war until 1942 and that the theater of the conflagration did not touch the mainland United States. So set a gold dollar standard with a value of $ 35.00 an ounce as a fixed price. Also this conference created the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. In 1973, when the price of gold was no longer appropriate for the United States and France and England requesting that they change their surplus dollars as agreed at Bretton Woods, Richard Nixon, then President of North America unilaterally eliminated the pattern and devalued the dollar to take advantage in exports.

The Keynesian model was strong throughout the postwar period and for most economists was responsible for the booming world economy after the Second World War. But neo-liberal economists of the Austrian school consider that this is not true.

The economic model developed by Keynes is the framework of so-called import substitution model which essentially promotes the substitution of imported products through incentive policies of the domestic industry. This model encourages the direct involvement of state in the economy in some cases competing with private enterprise, but by encouraging the creation of domestic industries while setting all sorts of obstacles to imports of products competing with those produced by domestic industry . Everything that we can produce we will not import it. If there are enough shoe factories to meet the domestic market, we must not allow importation of shoes. This flow of Keynesianism in Panama is what in the seventies let the government to own "The Power and Light" an American multinational company which nationalized and became the IRHE and Intel, the creation of Bayano state enterprises such as cement, Air Panama, Chiriqui citrus, sugar mills, among others.

We can never know whether the author himself for this model is the kind of state intervention that generates referred to as aggregate demand, or is a degeneration of the concept, as Lord John Maynard Keynes who was created Baron by King George VI of England in 1942, during the Second World War and therefore was part of the House of Lords, died of natural causes in 1946, soon after the end of World War II.

domingo, 29 de noviembre de 2009

THE GREAT DEPRESSION

By: Felipe Argote

It was Thursday. The autumn was as usual but in Wall Street, however, the density of the atmosphere could be cut with a razor.

During the past eight years, the so-called happy twenties, the growth in stock prices had attracted an irregular number of investors. Most had no idea how it works, the only thing they knew is they can buy a stock and after a while the price rose giving you immoral earnings. Like a Ponzi scheme. However, since a few months ago, the Dow Jones showed irregular movements.

The '20s had shown generally very good numbers for the economy. American industry took advantage of the destruction of the installed capacity of Europe after the First World War. Also agricultural production driven by rising global demand, but unlike the industry, prices of goods produced by the primary sector of the economy remained depressed. Keep in mind that U.S. territory was not theater of the conflagration in Europe while the trench warfare destroyed the industry and agricultural production. Recovery was not easy, especially for Germany, whose surrender of Versailles established the armistice that forced him to a level of compensation for the victors of the war that almost unfits to recover their production levels. Germany was obliged to pay annual compensation of 1,200 million gold francs. United States, Australia and Japan industry could leverage their production intact to hold the market Europeans could not recover after the war.

In America euphoria danced accompanied by new rhythms of Charleston, in dance halls and jazz in the basement of slums all of them fueled by illegal alcohol from Canada. Very few expected the economic disaster that hit like an asteroid in Wall Street.

The week before the fateful Thursday 23 October 1929, the stock exchange in New York suffered an unusual stock sale. This was the first tremor, a first bell that announced the tragedy. On Thursday, 24 October, known as the black Thursday, it went on sale 13 million shares below their value in the absence of an equal number of buyers. That day the police charged investors surrounding the building of the stock exchange in New York. It seemed that it has touched the bottom. By Friday it seemed that the worst was over. There was a stabilization result of the acquisition of a large number of shares above their price by an agent working for banks, by agreement of the Chase Manhattan Bank, JP Morgan Chase and National City Bank, which together put money to buy shares above its value, to try to reassure investors and avoid the anxiety that a stampede of sellers as the best style of the wild west.

On Monday 28 the Dow Jones average fell 13%. On Tuesday 29 were placed on sale 33 million shares. The panic was already uncontrollable. A human tide was trying to sell their shares at any price. Ruined investors fell down from skyscrapers; people took their savings from banks. When finally the smoke cleared no less than 32,000 businesses had disappeared, some 2,000 banks had closed, more than one million investors had lost all their savings, 25% of the economically active population was unemployed, industry contracted by 50%, world trade 66%. The Dow Jones fell by 89%. The stock prices fell to a level that regains its pre-depression value until 1954.

The stock market is not what caused the Great Depression. It is just a mirror of what happens in the economy. Several factors were the triggers that led to the crisis: the not well distribution of income, an increase in production that reached the level of not having a counterpart in demand, this led to an increase in inventories primarily by the inability of Europe to continue buying products caused by the increase in import fees in the United States that contracted export and therefore their purchasing power. The states were using an economic model based on the premise that increasing exports and reducing imports was best for strengthening the domestic economy. And it was for a time, until the reduction of imports weakens the countries to which exports are restricted, then the reduction of their purchasing bounds back as a ball.

The Great Depression was also held by the insistence on continuing with an exhausted model, the liberal model for whom the concept of "laissez faire" determined that the most appropriate to the crisis was simply doing nothing ... the invisible hand would provide that after the crisis came a turning point that changed the sign of the curve leading inexorably toward recovery and return to the boom.

But the invisible hand was never seen. First because it was invisible and secondly because investors finally, those who survived the Great Depression, would not risk falling into the list of suicides by investing in an economy in recession. Instead they preferred to wait crouched, dead quiet, the economy improved at the expense of other capitalists.

It was not the invisible hand, but John Maynard Keynes who finally managed to fix the global crisis. But that's another story.

2012 THE END OF THE WORLD: THE POPOL VUH

By: Felipe Argote

I was attending a meeting of the Pan American Institute former classmates when one of them, my friend Julio Perez, broached the subject of the Popol Vuh and their relationship to the world end in 2012.

With the advent of the new movie "2012 WE WERE WARNED" has become popular as discussion of the alleged prophecies of the Popol Vuh, the Mayan calendar and the end of the world as we know, with all the disasters, massacres and other calamities usually associated with biblical prophecies. Needless to say that religion has been historically based on fright, suggestion and fear. All this is very convenient for a thriller as it is currently presented in theaters.

The human being requires a certain level of adrenaline, which can be acquired in a football game, in a horror film or a roller coaster. People pay a large sum of money, take a plane with their children, traveling for almost four hours to Orlando, Florida, pay a hotel, car rental, tickets for all members of the family and goes to a park where then up to 45 minutes in a row to rise an attraction for 45 seconds where they are terrified to the core pirouetting in a mechanical device, but at the end they are all happy, commenting on how terrible was the experience.

Well, as Hollywood producers and writers of tragedy were won by the terms of the prophecies of Nostradamus, who claimed that their alleged predictions as the world ended in 1970, then in 1985, later in 1990, for then change the date to 2000, until they got to forget the matter, so they had to take a number of historical inconsistencies to assemble an Armageddon that would serve to inaugurate the new special effects.

The Popol Vuh is a book not recovered from the Mayan civilization, even the title of the book is not from the Mayas. The Popol Vuh is a supposed translation of a Mayan writings that have never been found or shown in the hieroglyphics of Tchizen Itza, Tikal, Copan or Balmopal, or any archaeological discovery.

The book is a write from a Christian priest of the seventeenth century, Fray Francisco Ximenez. According to him, it was written from an original developed by the Quiche Indians in the sixteenth century using the Roman alphabet, guarded by the Maya-speaking people, and entrusted to him in the seventeenth century. Keep in mind that the Spanish with their ignorance of biblical proportions, from the late fifteenth century, coming from a country where non-Christians were burned alive, undertook the task of systematically destroy all the writings of both Maya and all other American civilizations. The Mayan civilization, or what we know as Mayas, a generic name used by the Spanish to name those who spoke that language, had its greatest development in the 10th century A.C. This is 500 years before the Spanish arrived. Upon arrival these Europeans the population was reduced to 10% in the first 25 years of colonization. Exactly, disappeared 90% of the Maya-speaking population, a product of the killings, European diseases for which the Indians had no antibodies, but mainly because the settlers use all young men marching toward the gold mines, forced to work to extermination, while fertile women stay working the land with little chance to reproduce. Quiches are likely to have put their beliefs through oral tradition, but of course, mixed with European religion imposed by force. This is not surprising and has occurred throughout history. If not, then I refer to Santeria, a blend of Christianity with African deities all mixed to circumvent the imposition of a Christian and later joins to the rite.

So the good priest Ximénez took Quiché documents written in Latin characters and translated them into Spanish. After many tours of the priest originals they were published in 1861 by French missionary and also priest Charles Etienne Brasseur de Bour, who took them to France and published under the name developed by himself: "Popol Vuh, Le Livre Sacré et les mythes de l'Antiquité Américaine”. None of the chapters of the Popol Vuh speak of the extinction of the planet. The book contains a group of writings in which they develop his idea of the creation of the world by the gods, conflicts between the gods and the creation of human beings after several failed attempts. Admiration for the corn, that was their basic food and therefore sacred and the genesis of civilization.

So the movie makers inserted this apocryphal writing in real archaeological discoveries of the Mayan civilization, especially its religious calendar or Tzoltin, which is much more accurate than the Gregorian. Based on lunar cycles, with 4 phases of 7-day gives a total of 28 days for thirteen moons and give a year of 364 days plus a green day. Instead we use the Gregorian months of 30, 31 and even 28 days, plus one of 29 every four years. But the Maya also had the Haab, used by civilians, of 18 periods of 20 days each plus five extra at the end. And a third, the long one, counts from the start. It is a cycle of 1872 million days. As some believe it started on 13 August 3114 BC, according to his calculations this cycle ending December 23, 2112. Some will move deliberately to 21 to match the winter solstice in the northern hemisphere and others pull it to match thearrival of a comet course.

What seems contradictory, but at bottom it turns out, is that many of the most fanatical followers of this cataclysm movement are themselves earnest Christians. It turns out that some people with their dark consciences because of their many bad actions are willing to believe anything to you wash their actions or to punish themselves with fire for their sins and shameful deeds, that to embrace martyrdom for flagellates themselves but they don’t matter in passing in their minds fevered they will carry with them the rest of humanity.

Some of these devout Christians have found similarities between the Popol Vuh and the Bible. I will not contradict. It is very possible that some of the writings of Maya oral tradition has been edited by the good priest Ximenez, who must have crisscrossed the Mayan tradition with the Bible and through this soup proselytize the indigenous population that survived the great slaughter that systematically developed his countrymen, the Spanish that invaded their lands.

BEWARE OF INFLATION

By Felipe Argote

Technically it is the declining of purchasing power of a currency or an increase in the prices of goods and services we buy.

The reason for increased prices is mixed. I will divide into three groups in order to facilitate analysis.

Inflation by increasing demand: During the 60 Phillips, Solow and Samuelson developed a study where a graph prepared by putting on the vertical axis the level of price variation and in the horizontal the unemployment rate. Placing the U.S. time series concluded that unemployment and inflation are inversely proportional. This is that if unemployment rises the prices are reduced but if unemployment levels goes down the prices rise. This is called the Phillips curve. However this was questioned in the seventies where they had high levels of inflation accompanied by high unemployment, the so-called stagflation. In any case where there is rapid economic growth, if the increase in the purchasing power of people if it is not accompanied by enough supply of goods to meet this new purchasing power it causes inflation. In developed countries generally ensures that the economy is not growing very fast because there may have inflation. Perhaps, a level of inflation is not the problem, the problem is that usually after inflation there is recession. For the capitalist economy it should be an unemployment level of around 3%. This is so because if unemployment is much reduced new investors will be difficult to get the workers they need because the vast majority of the people are working and the minimum percentage of unemployed are not eligible to be hired. So they will need to get the people that are already working. To convince them to leave their current job they will have to offer higher wages. When the current employers see that their workers are going to lunch and not return to their jobs, they begin to investigate what it is. When they see that they are changes their jobs and go to the competition they offer a rise of salary to the remaining workers for them to stay. This creates an increase in cost and because the salary is a determinant of price, they must raise prices of articles to cover the rising costs of labor. This starts an inflationary spiral that ends at the time of falling into recession.

In Panama, for example, part of the price increase has been due to the arrival in our country of a plural number of foreigners with greater purchasing power than the national average. Some are called baby boomers. This name arises because it is the generation that was born during the economic boom that germinated after the Second World War. This is between 1946 and 1960. These children were born in a boom period had therefore the best conditions to grow and develop good levels of income. These babies are now over sixty and are retreating. Retirees are good levels of savings looking for a quiet place to retreat away from the stress of his country and the way they have the money to decide where to locate. A portion of these baby boomers have decided to retire in Panama and occupy much of the apartments being built in Paitilla, Costa del Este and Punta Pacifica. By having high income levels are willing to pay more for the product available in supermarkets. This leads to the owners of supermarkets raise the wreck of the food products so they also raise their profits at the expense of Panamanians that unlike the baby boomers do not have this high level of income. But not only the baby boomers, also Venezuelans who derive their income of colossal rise in oil prices and they spent it heavily abroad, with the refrain “is cheap give me two”. They are those who stroll through the malls, and restaurants, while Panamanians watch with disgust as sellers and waiters leave them with the word in the mouth when they see someone entering with a foreign accent.

The rising inflation costs: This is set by the increase in oil prices or agricultural inputs, pesticides, electricity, taxes, for example, or for any other costs that determine which employers, with the aim of not reducing its rate of profit, pass to the final price that consumers pay it, bringing with it the price level

Inflation by printing money: Although not the case of Panama, because we have seen in previous articles that we are dollarized, that is we have no monetary issue, we must explain to the convenience of interested readers and those living outside our country. Some governments issue too much paper money just to meet the pressure of wage increases for the military, police and public employees or to develop campaign activities to prevent the opposition wins or simply irresponsible handling of economic policy. When raising the level of paper without a rise in the number of products, the value of money decreases, thereby creating inflation. This irresponsible policy can create a spiral that will not only determine that there is an even worse inflation but hyperinflation. This is a crazy and desperate race of prices usually settles with a shock policy where the government froze wages and allowing prices to rise until gravity makes them go down again in a few months, stopping hyperinflation and allowing to starve those who cannot stand the shock.

Inflation drives ultimately to a recession. If an employer has a cheese factory and sees that the price of milk rise, thus he raises the price of cheese. Then if the milk is raised once again he will raise the price of cheese in an amount similar to the increase of milk plus one extra to cover the possible further increase later. It is possible that the consumers keep buying but not paying the price difference very willingly, especially those who like cheese on breakfast or likes lots of cheese on their pizza. But there comes a time when prices rise to levels that buyers decide they cannot afford the increase. After that, starts to increase inventory of cheese in the factory in our example. Orders are reduced, then there are cancelations in the orders previously requested. When there is no more room to put more cheese because refrigerators, offices and corridors are filled to bursting it is decided to stop production.

After a few days they observe employees playing cards in time for work the employer will say angry I could not pay salaries of employees who do not work so he fire without further processing until it can start production again. Without knowing he is reducing the purchasing power of people and thus reducing the possibility for improved demand. Perhaps some employers know this, but are not willing to blow themselves up hoping to change the sign of the economic situation. That leads to other employers who also have reduced sales to reduce payroll, further limiting demand. At that time we have fallen into recession.

The recession is merely a contraction of economic activity. So in developed countries which of course like all civilized countries have a central bank, they see that unemployment is being reduced to dangerous levels, raising the interest rate market to "cool down" a bit the economy and prevent fall in inflation and from that point to avoid what he most feared: the recession.

sábado, 21 de noviembre de 2009

THE WEALTH OF NATIONS

By: Felipe Argote

Some readers have asked me about what is the neoliberal model. It is not easy to clarify. To get to develop this explanation necessarily requires going to wing genesis of this model. Since it is the neo liberalism, it will not be surprising that I should first explain that the liberal model is its predecessor.

To speak of the liberal model we introduce telling the story of his ideologist, the Scot Adam Smith Douglas. He was born in a small town in Scotland called Kirkaldi. At three months old he misses his father. His mother was the daughter of a landowner in the area. At the age of four years, he was kidnapped by gypsies. After much searching he was found abandoned in the woods. At 14, he left town after finishing elementary school as a good student as the owner of a great memory. He went on to study at the University of Glasgow. Three years later he left Glasgow having won a scholarship to study at the prestigious Oxford University. At age 23 he graduated from Oxford and engaged to speak at conferences for some years. At this time he met the philosopher David Hume, Scottish economist and historian who were his atheist's closest friend.

Smith became a professor of ethics and logic for 12 years. During this time of teaching he published in 1759 "Theory of Moral Sentiments" a book of philosophy that presents for the first time his famous invisible hand theory in which human selfishness that underlies unintentionally determines well-being for the whole society.

In 1974 he left for France where he met Voltaire, ideologue of the liberal bourgeoisie and Francois Quesnay, a surgeon who was one of the founders of physiocracy or rule of nature. This group Physiocratic instituted the phrase "laissez faire, laissez passer" those convinced that there should be nothing that would allow the economy flowing by itself without the influence of state power. This was a great influence on Adam Smith and the Physiocrats reacted to the mercantilist, who argued that the trade volume was unchanged was therefore necessary that the nation seeks to export and import as much as possible the minimum to be strengthened.

In 1776 he published his masterpiece, and that makes him worthy of the title of father of economics: "Essay on the wealth of nations". Although many of the elaborations of this book have already been developed before, the same liberal thinking synthesized from an economic perspective and divorces to the economy as an independent science. It was liberalism as a philosophy. Additionally proposes and provides the so-called law of absolute advantage and the concept of job specialization, of great value to the industrial revolution. In terms of absolute advantage Smith as an ideologue of the liberal view of economics will develop this law, which broadly supports the appropriateness of mathematical form of international exchange, taking as parameter the work as a common measure of value. According to Smith countries should specialize in that product where they are more efficient and purchase that product which is less efficient. Being that as Smith's common measure of product value is the amount of work required to produce it, we figure out what products we use comparatively increased workload to another country and which use comparatively less to produce the same volume of product. Thus we must decide where to concentrate our efforts. Recall again the time of Adam Smith writes. There were no transnational corporations emerging in the late nineteenth century. It then explains that the production efficiencies compare between countries do not take into account the performance of companies that are producing goods and services in both countries at once.

Adam Smith in proposing the liberal model was doing something innovative for its time (1776). It was a historic moment, where pressures were still feudal and semi feudal who insisted on not allowing free enterprise. Adam Smith supports the objective of profit is right for society. When Smith speaks to the goal of the baker to get up early to knead the bread is not altruistic. The baker is not thinking about providing a public service or is interested in that moment for the good of humanity or fewer. The baker gets up early just for personal gain he will get when selling the bread, but with the goal of profit, this selfish desire Baker makes it a good for society because workers can satisfy their appetite before starting his task. Personal gain is thus suitable for the whole society.

According to Adam Smith free market is a must for not limiting the scope for expansion of production that brings the division of labor. International trade is beneficial to his trial for both sides of the equation if the country specializes in those where it is more efficient.

Another interesting element in the perspective of Adam Smith is the total reliance on market forces. Smith was referring to an invisible hand. According to Smith, individual decisions to take each person as an invisible hand leading to better outcome for society as a whole you. A simplistic analysis would lead to the same conclusion. If the products prices are skyrocketing, buyers purchase fewer of them to be expensive. This would inevitably lead producers to reduce prices in order to sell or the price as attractive individuals will increase production of that good. This phenomenon will cause the asset is abundant, which make the prices go down under its own weight.

In a naive society that is likely to occur. Obviously any warning analyst would ponder what if the producers agree on a price and it is sufficiently high to prevent the plaintiffs did not acquire, ensure an additional level of profit to producers above indicating the equilibrium price. Especially inelastic products, these are those in which an increase in the price determines a proportionally smaller reduction in demand. If for example the state does not control the rents of apartments is possible that in a market controlled by a group of owners they determine 10% increase in rents. Even if they wanted the people could not prevent the increase taking the decision to move. First, because all rents rose and second because the rate of increase is not powerful enough to make up your mind to invest in a move that will likely require a larger investment than the rent increase.

Although the model proposed by Adam Smith may have many questions I have to be iterative in that it was the expression of a sector of society that was imposed in a time of great economic and social transformations.

DECLARATION OF GLOBAL CHILDREN RIGHTS

By: Felipe Argote

Each 20 November, commemorates the declaration of global children's rights that was enunciated by the General Assembly of the United Nations the same day but in 1959. Initially consist of ten principles, but was increased in 1979 to 19, it currently holds. This year is special because it becomes the 50th anniversary of the declaration. Consider the enumeration of these principles:

1. Children have the right to play.

2. Children have the right to freedom of association and share their views with others.

3. Children are entitled to make known their views.

4. All children have the right to a family.

5. Children are entitled to protection during armed conflict.

6. All children have the right to freedom of conscience.

7. Children are entitled to protection from neglect or negligent treatment.

8. Children are entitled to the Protection against Child Labor.

9. Children are entitled to adequate information.

10. Children have the right to freedom of expression.

11. Children are entitled to protection from trafficking and abduction.

12. Children are entitled to know and enjoy our culture.

13. Children are entitled to protection against landmines.

14. Children are entitled to protection from all forms of sexual exploitation and abuse.

15. Children have the right to privacy

16. Children deserve to grow up in a family that gives them affection and love.

17. All children have the right to a name and nationality.

18. All children are entitled to food and nutrition.

19. All children have the right to live in harmony.

THE GODS MUST BE CRAZY

Born in the Kalahari , N! xau ( the exclamation point is a crack) is famous for being the main actor of the movie "The Gods Must Be Crazy ." In the movie a Bushman Tribe receives a gift from heaven, a Coke bottle thrown from the window of an airplane. The gift from the gods to be a source of joy becomes a source of fight until N! xau decided to leave it at what is going on foot to dump it at the end of the world. This is the beginning of an adventure that pits the simple Bushmanlife with the most elemental technology and the stupid rules imposed by civilization. Is said that when he was paid for his performance N! xau released the bills to the wind because they he had no value for him.

MALINCHE BY LAURA ESQUIVEL

Malinche was a daughter of Noble in Nahua, Mexican also be called Aztec becuse they came from a place called Aztlan, and who settled in the valley of Mexico on XV century before expanding to what today is Central. La Malinche, or Doña Marina as she was baptized by spanish collaborated with Hernan Cortes and was one of his concubines. She helped to him to take aztec empire ans was used as translator. After Cortes took the empire he give her to one of his officials. It has been said that she was murdered in her own home.

AN THE MAYOR ? TALKING STUPID THINGS

Throughout the city there are somethings called monuments that have become garbage dumps, or simple mosquito breeding ruins. In Balboa, a monument that are misshapen figures balanced on a log to a dwarf who raises his fingers in sign of peace. The same day ended the Arnulfists government finished the budget for maintenance, the lights and the fountain disappeared and only the grotesque figures left. At Tumba Muerto avenue a group of ladies raised a Roman column holding an event and left it to their fate. Although years ago a red devil bus hit the base of the pilaster, the supposed monument and its significance remain unknown giving the city and ugly picture until it meets the result, it falls over a car or a pedestrian and kill someone.

THE PLOT

FOUR TEENAGERS WERE SWIMMING AT A RIVER WHEN THEY SAW THE ALLIEN BEING IN THE JUNGLE. BECAUSE HE WAS DIFFERENT THEY DECIDE TO BEAT HIM TO DEATH, AS THEY HAVE LEARNED BY HOLLYWOOD FILM AND TELEVISION PROGRAMS. THE FIRST AND SECOND PHOTO SHOW HOW HIS BODY REMAINED AFTER DEATH. THE THIRD SHOWS HOW HE LOOKS LIKE WHEN HE WAS ALIVE, THE FOURTH IS HIS I.D. PICTURE AND YOU CAN SEE AT THE FIFTH ONE OF THE THOUSANDS SHIPS THAT COMO TO AVENT HIS BUDY. WOULD YOU PLESE KILLERS TURN TO THE ALIENS TO AVOID AN INTERGALICTICAL WAR. IT IS NOT A GOOD MOMENT TO WAR WHEN WE THE WORLD ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A FINANCIAL CRISIS.

MANATEE AT THE PANAMA CANAL

Few know, some of us did not know until recently that there are manatees at the Gatun Lake. These specimens are not originated from this artificial lake, were implanted in 1964 to control the growth of vegetation in the Panama canal. These animals are herbivors and can eat between 100 to 200 pounds of aquatic plants per day. They were part of a project of the former Canal Commission. One was brought from Peru and ten were brough from Bocas del Toro, but escaped during a storm and are now known to exist in the remotest places of Gatun Lake. They are very shy of human presence and can last up to twenty minutes underwater.

WILL THE MOON REACT TO ASSAULT?

In order to confirm the theory of the existence of water in a specific location of the moon, NASA scientists sent an unmanned vehicle to bombard a specific area of the small mass of land that runs our planet. According to the disclosures the maneuver was successful because it felt a splash in the bombed area. However, there are reports that the lunatics (inhabitants of the moon) have considered this an attack. Tempers have been heated in recent weeks, the product of murdering by teenage radicals in Cerro Azul, Panama

On Thursday, May 20, was held in the conference room of the master program of the American University of Panama an interesting exposition by the Engineer Jorge Quijano, Executive Vice President Engineering and Program Management of the Panama Canal Authority. The speaker presented the progress of the canal expansion at students and professors at the master's program. The conference was organized and presented by Professor Gustavo Salom who directs the graduate program of this prestigious university.

WHY COULD NOT U.S. CONFRONT MILITARILY THE ARAB EMBARGO IN 1973?

One of the reasons that Richard Nixon could not respond militarily to the oil embargo imposed by Arab countries in the seventies was the public opinion of the American people after seeing this photograph taken by Nic Ut an Associated Press photographer outside the population of Trang Bang in North Vietnam on 8 June 1972. In the photo Kim Phuc, a 9 years old vietnamese child run desesperately out of her town been bombed by napalm. It was not possible for U. S. to enter another war at the time. United States under President Richard Nixon signed the peacce agreement with North Vietnam in January 1973, six months after this photo and a few months before the oil embargo. Neem is now married and has a son. Richard Nixon resigned from his post as president on 8 August 1974.

NEW TAXES IN JANUARY

In January the middle class will receive another blow to his pocket. But contrary to what some believe, it is not the package of new tax reforms which fall to be discussed in January. This is the package already approved by the Assembly of Deputies in September 2009.
Starting January there will be charges of ITBMS of the following banking services:
1. RENEWAL OF CREDIT CARDS
2. FEES FOR HOUSING LOANS
3. FIVE-YEAR REVIEW COMMITTEE FOR MORTGAGE LOAN
4. RENTAL SAFE DEPOSIT BOX
5. CERTIFIED CHECKS
6. MANAGEMENT CHECKS
7. LETTERS OF CREDIT
8. COLLECTIONS
9. LOAN DISBURSEMENT
10. ATM WITHDRAWAL DIFFERENT TO SELF BANK ACCOUNT

The Maldives, a tropical paradise of thousands of islands located southwest of Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean is one of the top three places in the world for diving. There are more than a thousand atolls of which only two hundred are inhabited. Those who have visited it say it is a natural aquarium. However, the product of CO2 emissions will do this paradise completely disappear over the next 100 years. Although some islands such as Kandholhudhoo Island, 60% of people will evacuate in the next 15 years. Sea level is growing at almost a centimeter per year. 80% of the islands do not have a meter above sea level. It is one of the flattest places in the world. In the 2004 tsunami, the islands suffered the flooding of a large wave that caused the tsunami. They beg the world for reducing CO2 emissions. Especially the United States. Its President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, sent a year and half ago a letter pleading with former President Bush to sign the Kyoto protocol. Never received a response

PANAMÁ: WORLD BIODIVERSITY CENTER

The Isthmus of Panamá is the biggest botanical biodiversity on the planet. The density of plant life in Panamá is greater than in Colombia, Brazil and China combined. After many years of construction is expected in 2010 will open on biodiversity museum created by one of the world's best architects: Frank Gehry. This is the creator of the famous Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao as one of the 50 most important twentieth century buildings, the Vitra Design Museum in Weil-am-Rhein, Germany, the Weisman Art Museum in Minneapolis, Minn., the Experience Music Project in Seattle, Washington and the Walt Disney Concert Hall in Los Angeles, California among others.

ONE MONTH

One month after the first publication of my blog, thanks a lot to all of you who have written your point of view or have sent it to my personal email.

According to the counter AdSense, this month we have a total of 785 prints which is much more than we expected at the begining. This has committed us to continue to develop short-term analysis on the most important national issues.

Again I thank all the readers of my blog, with the assurance that there is a commitment to regularly update.

Sincerely,

Felipe Argote

Daja Editions

SEPTEMBER 13TH 2009