sábado, 26 de diciembre de 2009

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2010























Maybe you missed something this year, so I'll let you this week the time to read any of the articles that came out on the blog this year. For a better distribution I put them together in groups by topic.

CHRONICLES
PARIS: AN OPEN AIR MUSEUM
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/10/by-felipe-argote-with-collaboration-of.html
ORLANDO AND THE SEMINOLES
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/11/by-felipe-argote-when-first-spanish.html
MARSEILLAISE: THE STREETS
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/10/by-felipe-argote-photos-felipe-argote.html

ECONOMY
THE BASIC BASKET IS STILL RISING
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/09/basic-food-basket-still-raising.html
TAX REFORMS 2009 THE NEW BILL
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/09/new-bill-for-tax-reform.html
LETTER TO MR PRESIDENT
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/09/economists-association-of-panama-re-tax.html
PANAMA: 2010 STATE BUDGET
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/09/panama-presupuesto-general-del-estado_9274.html
GLOBALIZATION: THE PRODUCTION PROCESS IS GLOBALIZED
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/09/by-felipe-argote-often-used-as-crutch.html
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/09/neoliberal-model-was-walking-smugly.html
DOLLARIZATION
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/10/written-by-felipe-argote-photos-felipe.html
GROSS DOMESTIC INCOME
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/10/by-felipe-argote-photos-felipe-argote-i.html
THE AMAZING STORY OF DOW AND JONES
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/11/by-felipe-argote-charles-dow-was-born.html
THE STOCK MARKET
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/11/when-spanish-jews-fled-south-of-spain.html
A SEPHARDIC CALLED RICARDO
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/11/por-felipe-argote-we-can-not-finish.html
THE GREAT DEPRESSION
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/11/great-depression.html
THE WEALTH OF NATIONS
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/11/wealth-of-nations.html
BEWARE OF INFLATION
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/11/beware-of-inflation.html
SIR JHON MAYNARD KEYNES
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/12/sir-john-maynard-keynes.html
TAX REFORM 2010
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/12/new-tax-reform.html

INTERESTING ARTICLES
VOLCANOES
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/11/volcanoes.html
2012 THE END OF THE WORLD: THE POPOL VUH
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/11/2012-end-of-world-popol-vuh.html
KILIMANJARO: A SNOW MOUNTAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF AFRICA
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/12/snow-mountain-in-middle-of-african.html

OPINION
WHAT ABOUT PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/09/what-about-public-transportation.html
CHILDREN AND TEENAGERS GO HOME
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/09/by-felipe-argote-photo-daja-editions.html
CENTRAL AMERICAN PARLIAMENT: AN HISTORICAL STUBBORNNESS
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/09/central-america-parliament-historical.html
THE ELECTORAL CODE AMENDMENTS
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/10/electoral-code-amendments.html
THE BIZARRE PLANET
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/10/bizarre-planet.html
BORN ON NOVEMBER 3
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/10/born-on-november-3.html
ANEL DAVID RUIZ IS NOT AT THE NEWS
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/11/anel-david-ruiz-is-not-at-news.html
RIGHTS OF THE CHILDREN
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/11/declaration-of-global-children-rights.html
FABLE OF THE FROG AND THE SCORPIO
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/12/fable-of-frog-and-scorpion.html
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/12/maldives-will-sink-under-indian-ocean.html
20 YEARS OF THE INVASION OF PANAMA
http://felipeargotes.blogspot.com/2009/12/20-years-of-invasion-of-panama.html

domingo, 20 de diciembre de 2009

GLOBAL WARM

THE MALDIVES WILL SINK UNDER THE INDIAN OCEAN


By Felipe Argote



In Copenhagen, Denmark since last December's 17 is taking place the United Nations conference on climate change. This meeting aims to develop an argument to stop the causes of global warming and its disastrous effects on humanity. The cause of global warming is primarily the product CO2 from burning fossil fuels especially coal and oil.

Accumulating CO2 in the atmosphere forms a layer that traps heat from the sun and raises the temperature of the earth. These temperature increases is already causing extensive and have melted polar areas. That large chunks of ice separating from the melting polar cap are slowly moving through the ocean freely. This raises the sea level and therefore endangers coastal cities.


To get an idea of how it affects us directly Panamanians just give you an example. It is considered that the elevation of only 30 centimeters in sea level would determine the need to evacuate the city of Colon. Follow his trend to global warming by 2050 is expected to raise sea level by 70 centimeters. But sea level rise would not only have effects on flood coastal cities also raise levels of salinity of ground water and reducing the volume of potable water for human consumption and agriculture. Additionally would be catastrophic for mangroves and spawning areas for many marine species. It is estimated that in 50 years could be lost 30 percent of the species follow this trend.


The major plants are producing energy from fuel annually emitted 2500 million tones of CO2 gas emissions and vehicles annually emit 1,500 million tons of CO2. Currently the United States are responsible for 25% of the issue CO2 in the world despite having only 4% of world population. In contradiction was one of the few countries not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. It was not ratified during the Bill Clinton administration in which Al Gore; Nobel Prize for his fight against climate change was his vice president. Wasn’t ratified during the Bush administration, where in addition the U.S. withdrew from the protocol.

This Kyoto Protocol was an agreement signed on 11 December 1997 in which industrialized countries pledged to reduce by 2012 to 5% of their emissions over 1990 levels. This includes not only CO2 but also methane and nitrous oxide in addition to three industrial pollutants.


But twelve years later there seems no political will to implement the commitment. The largest issuer through his foreign minister instead of Hilary Clinton pledging to reduce emissions of gases undertakes to contribute U.S. $ 100,000 million annually beginning in 2020 when neither Hilary nor Obama will be on the U.S. government. These grants would have the receivers to the poor countries to mitigate the devastating effects. That will actually accept that the climate on these countries will change instead of trying to stop it. China, another big issuer and with the greatest tendency to increase gas emissions in the future, says there is no time to compromise and that should leave the conference with a political statement. So with a politic manifesto this does not land on anything specific or compromise anyone to nothing.


However Brazil has been very aggressive in its commitment to reduce its emanations between 36.1 and 38.9 percent for 2020. The president Lula Da Silva pushed for industrialized countries responsible for the warming commit to reduce by at least 25% over the same period. He recalled that Brazil is a leader in biofuels and that "This summit is not a game where cards can be stored in the sleeve," said Lula, who said there was no room for complacency and it is time to act because "the verdict of the History will not save those who do not take responsibility. "

At last he pushed an agreement on precise gaseous reduction rather than a political manifesto. The agreement set aside by the United States, China, India and South Africa has more emphasis on economic aid against the disaster to prevent catastrophe. China refuses to accept any international body to verify their emissions considering it an intrusion on their sovereignty.

In this connection see what the agreement said John Sauve, executive director of Greenpeace in the UK:


"It seems that few politicians capable of seeing beyond their own interest and even less to worry about the millions of people facing the threat of climate change,"

"It is clear that combating climate change requires a radically different political model that what have shown in Copenhagen".

While politicians avoided the issue, representatives of the Maldives, one of the first places to disappear underwater watched impassively as the world does nothing to prevent their disappearance.

20 YEARS OF THE INVASION OF PANAMA

By: Felipe Argote



The long night if, one day before the longest night of the year in the northern hemisphere, became even longer, almost perpetual, for the thousands of people especially Chorrillo who felt 500-pound bombs dropped literally on top of their heads.

You never know, maybe we will never know the names of the murdered innocents. There is not a monument with the names of the killed, so they will not forgotten. No. On the contrary, all governments, starting with that took possession in a foreign military base, have tried to ignore the unfortunate episode in the history of this country.



However, the many innocent people killed for no reason and the dozens who died taking up arms, defending the country, guaranteed with their lives that ten years later not only the soldiers who invaded our territory but all stationed at the bases leave the country and the closure of the Canal Zone. Despite the vast unpopularity of the Noriega dictatorship, although small and great attempts were unsuccessful to overthrow the dictator and pessimism seemed to become master of the population, there were important areas that reacted against the intrusion of the military foreign to elucidate internal conflict. Panamanians were not all as Endara, Ford and Arias Calderon. This was demonstrated with large demonstrations that despite the presence of gringos tanks roamed the streets on May Day, just four months after the invasion, the great manifestations of the Coordinator for the right to life, to whom the puppet government invented the notorious Law 25 and especially the massive march on 20 December 1990.


This patriotic attitude of the committees, especially the families of fallen on December 20, but many others were important to the invader calculated it was better to leave and as a thief who flees to his lair, did not expect the 12's noon on 31 December 1999 instead went to the hill of the administration building of the canal in the middle of the complicity of the night, dropped their last flag and went in the last military aircraft from the base of Howard.


The long list of those who died on 20 December 1989 the sum of the heroes and martyrs who died in 1925 and 1964, with his precious blood that helped cement our free and sovereign country. As we enjoy the beauty of our canal areas and we are proud of our canal, we must not forget that many men and women gave their lives for something that years ago seemed a dream come true.

domingo, 13 de diciembre de 2009

A SNOW MOUNTAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFRICAN JUNGLE

THE KILIMANJARO


By: Felipe Argote


The legend of a snow mountain in the middle of Africa was often denounced as myth by the Europeans, despite the fact that for many years it was in the passageway of caravans of slaves from Central Africa to Zanzibar, which was its intermediate destination. Zanzibar in Persian means the coast of the blacks or also known as the Moluccas, an island species.

But the comments did not stop to listen. The stories of those from Unguja and Pemba islands located off the east coast of Africa, where from the twelfth to the nineteenth centralized thousands of slaves who were hunted like animals by the Arab traders then by the Persians and later by the British. These stories tell of a great mountain that rose above the clouds and inhabited in her skirts for the terrible cannibal of the Chagga tribe.


Much earlier, in the second century BC, the Greek astronomer Ptolemy referred to a mysterious place in southern Somalia inhabited by cannibals and a snowy mountain. Then in the twelfth century Chinese traders refer to a large mountain west of Zanzibar.

Not until 170 years ago when William Cogley and other British explorers will internalize this part of Africa in search of the source of the Nile, which refer to the existence of this great mountain snow in the middle of the jungle. Johannes Rebbman Two years later, a German missionary heard about the existence of this huge mountain and decided to look for it. He obtained a permit under the guise of wanting to find new locations for Christian missions. Two weeks into the voyage locates the mount called Chagga. This is what he wrote:


"This morning we saw the Mountains of Jagga more clearly than ever at ten o'clock I saw on the summit a dazzling white cloud. My guide tells me that the white which I see is simply "cool" that makes me understand clearly that there could be no other thing than snow. "

After many attempts by various groups of Hungarians, Germans and British to climb the top of Kilimanjaro it was reached only on 6 October 1889, 120 years ago, guided by the participation of Chagga tribesman Yohana Lawd, together with the German Hans Meyer and Ludwig Purtscheller. Yohana De Lawd is said to have died in 1997 aged 127 years old.


Kilimanjaro is a volcano with three craters: Kibo (hope in Chagga), Mawenzi (5149 m) east and Shira west. The Kibo main summit is 2500 meters in diameter. Its last eruption was 360.000 years ago. The interesting thing about this stratovolcano is the contrast between their great elevation of 5,895 meters crowned by a massive glacier in the middle of the African plains with a hot tropical climate of the country of Tanzania, the union of Tanganyika and Zanzibar. In fact the word Tanzania is a union of the names of its two components who join in 1964.


Currently the glacier is disappearing very quickly. It is estimated that in 1900 added up to a twelve square kilometers area. But now occupies only 2 square kilometers. At this rate is very likely to disappear in one hundred and ten years. The global warming does not seem enough to develop this trend. It is believed that possibly is due to a slow awakening of this colossus as evidenced by the existence of vents that can be seen occasionally arising.

We may be one of the last generations that can attest to the existence of a snowy mountain in the middle of the African jungle of Tanzania, the country where the famous singer Farrokh Bulsara bommie was born Hw was better known by his pseudonym Freddie Mercury, the Queen band leader who died of AIDS in 1991.

THE NEW TAX REFORM

By: Felipe Argote



Among the economic trends are a number of trends and opinions as the on the same legal concept. Among economists there are so many different currents that is a myth to say that we can group them without anyone bothering to be in a segment with someone who does not approach its design. By contrast there are matrices or better as Tim Berners-Lee would say a web of ideas that intersect in some respects. The go as asymptotes and then away again in other elements of analysis. What can never be doubted, even among the historicist, much less between the marginalists, who adhere to a more algebraic approach to the economy, is equality between the two sides of an equation. The properties of equality states that if each side of an equation is added or subtracted an equal number, equality holds. Contrarius Censu, if a part of equality is added a number and the other remains the same, it destroys the equality of the equation. This may be not be economics but algebra, but serves to explain that if we have a balanced budget but we hope to increase revenues by 200 million dollars, to keep the budget balanced is impossible to reduce the sources of revenue without a replacement income decline plus the 200 million dollars.


While we can not say that tax reforms that will come to be discussed in January next year is not the best kept secret, cannot be said categorically that anyone knows the entire document. Least one could argue that their guidelines will be the end of the fiscal reform, given the pounding of the chief executive may, as it did with the Credentials Committee appointed by him to evaluate candidates for Judges of the Supreme Court, claim that does not like any of the measures proposed by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. With the difference that the consulting firm based in Washington that says is proud to serve the 70% of the companies listed in Fortune magazine will charge $2.5 million for their advice, unlike the commission of credentials that is ad honorem.


Some, however, those who have had access to the proposal, all close to the government, speak beauties of the document. Let's see. The former president of the Chamber of Commerce José Rivera rescues from the document a key element: Try that taxpayers, both individuals and businesses, see their tax rate reduced. Okay. If both natural and legal person will see their taxes reduced, and also will be recovered at least 100 million more as said the Minister of economy Vallarino, or 200 million as discussed among the most optimistic (or should I say pessimistic). To this is added that according to vice Economics Minister Frank de Lima, employees earning less than B/3,000 per month will pay 80 million less and who earns more than that number and pay 27% will be now lowered to 22% as the corporate rate. We may well be talking about another 200 million. It is highly unlikely that any difference is paid by the rise of banking. Impossible. If the banks now pays about B/47 million and is said to increase its contribution by 50% that is less than B/25 million more. Then it comes the declarations of the president of the republic Ricardo Martinelli who denies any possibility of raising the consumption tax or ITBMS, liquor and beer. Good news for the vice president.


Previously in the 2009 budget presentation gave some contradictory trends in our opinion on the variables that underlie it. For example it suggests that in 2010 that unemployment will fall by 1.5% while growth will be 3.5% in GDP. If in 2008 compared to the year immediately preceding the unemployment rate fell by just over one percentage point under pressure from economic growth above eight percent, how it intends to reduce the level of unemployment at 1.5% in 2010 to expected growth of only 3.5% being optimistic. Moreover, this is estimated to be accompanied by a reduction of more than 5 percentage points in the inflation rate. If this is possible then we have to establish three hypotheses

1. We must review the properties of the equation, including Baldor's algebra.

2. There are other non-recurring revenues that the government has saved with great zeal.

3. There will be a tax increase, most likely with an emphasis on consumption taxes to be paid by all Panamanians.

If the third hypothesis is fulfilled and I would like to be wrong, what we save in a pocket we're going to pay it with the other and a little more. How much more? Well, how about 200 millions ?

lunes, 7 de diciembre de 2009

FABLE OF THE FROG AND THE SCORPION

By Felipe Argote

The nobility of the people is legendary. After being deceived they always give politicians another chance.



Although in the past four years from 2004 to 2008 the economy grew at an average of more than seven digits, the Panamanian population is not enjoying this bonanza due to an increase in the prices of staple products known as the food basket of more than 35%.

To repair his woes the noble people entrusted their hopes to the owner of the largest supermarket chain in the country. Contradictory.

In the nineties Perez Balladares government implemented in our country the so called neoliberal model. This is a reissue of approach of the Austrian Carl Meger, Ludwig Von Mises, Friedrich von Hayek, among others. The theory is that by lowering tariffs, prices of imported goods would be cheaper than national. This would depress prices and consumers would be beneficiaries of this reduction in costs because domestic producers would be forced to lower prices by raising their efficiency because they would have more competition.

The reality was different. The importers took for their selves the difference between the price and the cost of imported goods without crossing the reduction in the price to consumers, instead set prices depending on what was indicated by domestic products, not imported, as claimed neoliberal economists.

The biggest beneficiary was undoubtedly the largest supermarket chains in the country and therefore the largest importer of consumer goods.

This policy initiated by government and Perez Balladares was continued by the next government of Arnulfist Mireya Moscoso and then the PRD of Martin Torrijos.


The people upset to see the deterioration of their living standards despite the country's economic growth reject the neoliberal policy makers and surrender all their hopes on a candidate who ran as an independent, not linked to the old politicians and that among other things promises to lower the prices of the products in the basket in 30%.

However, this policy is nothing less than the owner of the largest supermarket chain in the country, the biggest beneficiary of the reduction in tariffs and that refused to pass this decrease in costs to final consumers, taking advantage of the policy of free supply and demand of the neoliberal model implemented by the last three administrations. Did he need to be president to lower prices? Is it possible that the owner of supermarkets pursue a policy of price reduction that goes against their own interests and the nature of merchant whose goal is to buy the cheapest possible and sell with the most profit? Some clever guys after my question told me that the new president will have to fulfill their promise because otherwise the country will be involved in a social whirlwind. This will be very inconvenient to their interests as a popular uprising would be negative for the economy and thus for their own business. That is not going to kill myself politically and economically.

This leads me to quote you the fable assigned to Esopo but sometimes claimed to be a story of the African country of Niger.

There was a very noble frog in the Niger River that helped animals to cross the river to those who lacked the ability to cross by their own. So crossed mice, lizards and flies up to have their wet wings could not fly. One evening he saw a scorpion who asked her to cross. The noble frog told how he thought she was going to cross him that nobility did not mean stupid. That being a scorpion, he will stick his venom in her back. The scorpion assured him that was different and in no way he will endanger their lives because the murder would sink in too Deep River. He convinced the frog with his argument and she asks him to climb on her back. When they were in the river the scorpion venom poisonous nail her back. As they sank into the river, the frog asked him how he was so stupid that now both would die by drowning. The scorpion said very seriously ... What do you want me to do I am a scorpion it’s my nature, and then both of them sank to the bottom of the mighty Niger.

SIR JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES


By: Felipe Argote

Son of tiger striped leaves. But sometimes the born with many more lines than the father. This is the case with John Maynard Keynes. The son of John Nevile Keynes, a Cambridge economist follower of the ideas of Alfred Marshall the founder of the economy known cone the Cambridge school. He is also considered to Marshall the founder of the welfare state because, according to his own statement believes that the ultimate goal of economics is not simply the solution of social problems.


Keynes was born in 1883 in Cambridge, England where his father was a follower of the Cambridge school lead by Marshall. After studying mathematics, John Maynard decided to specialize in economics following the path of the influence of Marshall who was a friend of his father. At the age of 23 years he went to work to India for two years. He published "The Indian Currency and Finance". Later returns and stands as a professor at Cambridge University where he remains for seven years. In 1918 He married Lydia Lopokova Russian ballet dancer. In 1919 he was one of the representatives of Great Britain in establishing the so-called Treaty of Versailles which applies a harsh regime of reparations on Germany after its surrender in Worl War I. Keynes resigned the same year for being against the levels of punishment against the German grounds that they were unaffordable and would severely damage the German economy with negative consequences for the rest of the world. He published "The Economic Consequences of Peace. In 1926 he presented to Oxford where he gave a lecture "The End of Laissez Faire" in criticizing the current liberal individualists who nevertheless served in the late eighteenth century to change the concept of divine right of kings by the concept of social contract and individual freedom, and to replace the concept of divine right of the church for tolerance and the concept that the church is a group of people walking together by choice and not imposed in the style of Torquemada.


This critique of laissez faire liberalism and the concept of the invisible hand and that selfishness are desirable for society develops. It was three years before the Great Depression of October 1929. The recession lasted until the mid-thirties because of the stubbornness of liberal economists who insisted that there should be no intervention to resolve the crisis. Franklin Delano Roosevelt took the ideas clearly when inaugurated the so-called Keynesian New Deal, the committed state and guarantor of health, education and the work of members of society.

Without doubt the greatest contribution of Keynes is contained in the book "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" in which he analyzes the major recession which began with the fall of the stock exchange in New York. It is Keynes who manages to enter as a key element to explain the reduction in consumption in the so-called marginal propensity to save. This is that higher income people tend to reduce the percentage of their income they spend on consumption and instead increase the percentage dedicated to saving. This is because the consumption capacity of an individual has a limit. So if someone who earns minimum wage raises the wages he is very likely that nearly all the difference to spend to buy more food, clothes and so on. However if someone who has high level of income you receive a substantial increase in income is likely that much of their additional income as a fixed-term deposits.


Also consider that in periods of recession the state must, at the expense of a deficit, boost growth in demand through public works schemes that reduce the depression of wages. These measures, according to Keynes rising demand, which makes investors will decide to create companies that meet this demand which in turn raises economic growth as a spiral.

Keynes represented England in the Bretton Woods Conference. He proposed creating the International Clearing Union; an exchange institution would issue an international currency that would be exchanged for the currencies of the countries of the United Nations a fixed exchange rate. His plan was defeated by the one presented by the United States through its representative Harry D. White. The United States was in possession of 80% of all the gold in the world and was a creditor of his allies who had sold arms and made loans that did not participate in exploiting the war until 1942 and that the theater of the conflagration did not touch the mainland United States. So set a gold dollar standard with a value of $ 35.00 an ounce as a fixed price. Also this conference created the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. In 1973, when the price of gold was no longer appropriate for the United States and France and England requesting that they change their surplus dollars as agreed at Bretton Woods, Richard Nixon, then President of North America unilaterally eliminated the pattern and devalued the dollar to take advantage in exports.



The Keynesian model was strong throughout the postwar period and for most economists was responsible for the booming world economy after the Second World War. But neo-liberal economists of the Austrian school consider that this is not true.

The economic model developed by Keynes is the framework of so-called import substitution model which essentially promotes the substitution of imported products through incentive policies of the domestic industry. This model encourages the direct involvement of state in the economy in some cases competing with private enterprise, but by encouraging the creation of domestic industries while setting all sorts of obstacles to imports of products competing with those produced by domestic industry . Everything that we can produce we will not import it. If there are enough shoe factories to meet the domestic market, we must not allow importation of shoes. This flow of Keynesianism in Panama is what in the seventies let the government to own "The Power and Light" an American multinational company which nationalized and became the IRHE and Intel, the creation of Bayano state enterprises such as cement, Air Panama, Chiriqui citrus, sugar mills, among others.


We can never know whether the author himself for this model is the kind of state intervention that generates referred to as aggregate demand, or is a degeneration of the concept, as Lord John Maynard Keynes who was created Baron by King George VI of England in 1942, during the Second World War and therefore was part of the House of Lords, died of natural causes in 1946, soon after the end of World War II.